The World Trade Organization (WTO) and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) have both recently released their first-quarter global trade data for 2024,indicating an improvement in global trade trends.

On July 2nd,local time,the WTO published the latest trade statistics showing that after global merchandise trade volume remained flat throughout 2023,it turned to growth in the first quarter of 2024: compared to the previous quarter,merchandise trade measured by the average of imports and exports increased by 1.0% in the first quarter.Compared to the same period in 2023,the trade volume for the first quarter also grew by 1.4%.

Data released by UNCTAD on the same day also showed that the global trade trend turned positive in the first quarter of 2024,with merchandise trade volume increasing by about 1% quarter-on-quarter and service trade volume increasing by about 1.5%.

UNCTAD forecasts that,driven by strong trade momentum in the United States and developing countries,especially large developing economies in Asia,merchandise trade in the first half of 2024 will increase by about $250 billion compared to the second half of 2023,and service trade will increase by $100 billion.

UNCTAD's data also revealed that the main drivers of global trade growth in the first quarter of 2024 were export growth from China (9%),India (7%),and the United States (3%).In contrast,there was no growth in European exports,and African exports decreased by 5%.

Improvement in Global Trade Trends

This is the first time the WTO has published quarterly trade volume statistics since releasing the "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" on April 10th.

WTO economists predicted in that report that global merchandise trade volume will grow by 2.6% in 2024 and by 3.3% in 2025.The WTO now states that the current 1.0% growth in the first quarter is in line with the aforementioned forecast,and if the current expansion pace continues until the end of this year,the total trade volume for 2024 will increase by 2.7% compared to 2023.

However,the dollar value of global merchandise trade in the first quarter of 2024 decreased by 2% year-on-year.The WTO explained that the fact that trade volume increased while trade value decreased indicates that import and export prices were declining during this period.

The WTO stated that the current forecast for global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2024 remains around 3%,with a cautiously optimistic short-term trade outlook.If the positive trends continue,the global trade volume for 2024 may reach nearly $32 trillion,but it is unlikely to exceed the record level seen in 2022.The WTO also indicated that during the first quarter,most regions around the world made a positive contribution to the growth of trade volumes,but Europe remains a notable exception,as its imports and exports continued to decline.

UNCTAD also stated that in the first quarter of 2024,global trade continued to maintain the moderate and gradual growth momentum that began in the second half of 2023.The upward trend in trade observed in the first quarter was mainly due to the positive trade dynamics of the United States and developing countries,particularly the strong export performance of the largest developing economy in Asia.

UNCTAD also noted that in the first quarter of 2024,both global goods and services trade showed positive growth between quarters,with further growth expected in the second quarter of 2024.This indicates that global goods trade will recover in 2024,and it also suggests that the strong upward trend in services trade will come to an end.

UNCTAD stated that overall,the easing of global inflation and improved economic growth forecasts indicate that the long-standing macroeconomic downward trend is reversing.In addition,the rising demand for products related to energy transition and artificial intelligence will also promote trade growth in 2024.

UNCTAD also warned that the United States may lower interest rates later this year,leading to a weaker dollar,which could further boost global trade.However,the global trade outlook for 2024 still faces downside risks: ongoing geopolitical tensions,rising shipping costs,and emerging industrial policies could have a significant impact on global trade.

Green energy and artificial intelligence industries are growing strongly.

UNCTAD observed that there is a significant difference in trade growth across various industries globally,with green energy and artificial intelligence-related products showing even stronger growth.Compared to the first quarter of 2023,the trade volume of high-performance servers increased by 25%,and the trade volume of other computers and storage devices increased by 8%.The trade volume of electric vehicles also saw a significant increase,with a rise of about 25%.

UNCTAD stated that in many countries,demand in areas such as electric vehicles,solar panels,batteries,and high-end semiconductors is expected to grow further.Despite some government policies that may dampen certain trends,the trade growth rate of these products is likely to continue to be significantly higher than average.

UNCTAD noted that globally,the urgency of prioritizing domestic issues and fulfilling climate commitments is driving changes in industrial and trade policies.The use of trade restrictive measures and inward-looking industrial policies are expected to have a negative impact on international trade growth,especially in some strategic sectors.

In terms of regional trade,South-South trade is leading the trend.UNCTAD stated that in the first quarter of 2024,both imports and exports of developing countries and South-South trade grew by about 2%.In contrast,imports in developed countries remained flat,while exports increased slightly by 1%.UNCTAD warns that the response of supply chains to changes in trade policies and geopolitical tensions is also affecting global trade.In this context,some East Asian and Latin American economies may find opportunities to integrate more into supply chains influenced by geopolitics.